About the paper
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 examines global risks across 2026, 2028 and 2036, framing the period as an “age of competition” shaped by geo-economic confrontation, societal fragmentation, technological acceleration and environmental stress.
It is a mixed-methods report based on the Global Risks Perception Survey of over 1,300 experts worldwide, the Executive Opinion Survey of over 11,000 business leaders in 116 economies, and foresight input from 161 experts through interviews and workshops conducted between May and November 2025.
Length: 102 pages
More information / download:
https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/
Core Insights
1. What is the report’s central argument about the global risk landscape in 2026–2036?
The report’s central argument is that the world is entering an “age of competition” in which cooperation is weakening just as global risks are becoming faster, more interconnected and more systemic. The report does not present predictions, but rather a set of plausible risk trajectories intended to support prevention and preparedness.
Its core diagnosis is that geopolitical and geo-economic rivalry are no longer separate risk categories; they are becoming organising forces that shape the entire risk landscape. Trade, finance, technology, supply chains and infrastructure are increasingly treated as instruments of power. This creates a world in which confrontation replaces collaboration, and where multilateral institutions struggle to manage cross-border problems.
The report’s tone is notably pessimistic. Half of surveyed experts expect a turbulent or stormy global outlook over the next two years, rising to 57% over the next decade. Only 1% expect a calm outlook across either time horizon. The implication is that instability is not viewed as a temporary disruption, but as a structural condition of the coming decade.
2. Which risks dominate the short-term outlook, and why?
In the immediate and two-year outlook, geo-economic confrontation is the dominant concern. It is identified as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026, selected by 18% of respondents, followed by state-based armed conflict at 14%. Over the two-year horizon, geo-economic confrontation is also ranked as the most severe risk.
This reflects the report’s view that economic instruments are increasingly being used for strategic advantage. Sanctions, tariffs, investment controls, technology restrictions, supply-chain weaponisation and resource competition are no longer peripheral policy tools; they are becoming central features of international rivalry. The report argues that this threatens the core of the interconnected global economy.
Other short-term risks cluster around the same underlying instability. Misinformation and disinformation ranks second over the two-year horizon, societal polarisation third, extreme weather fourth, and state-based armed conflict fifth. Cyber insecurity, inequality and erosion of civic freedoms also feature in the top 10. This shows that the report sees short-term risk as a combination of geopolitical confrontation, social fragmentation and information disorder.
Economic risks also rise sharply in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation each rise eight places compared with the previous year, while asset bubble burst rises seven places. The report links these concerns to debt pressures, volatile markets, potential AI-related investment bubbles and the broader uncertainty created by protectionism and geo-economic rivalry.
3. How does the long-term risk outlook differ from the two-year outlook?
The long-term outlook shifts from geopolitical and economic confrontation towards environmental and technological risks. Over the 10-year horizon, extreme weather events rank first, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems, misinformation and disinformation, and adverse outcomes of AI technologies. Half of the top 10 long-term risks are environmental.
This creates one of the report’s central tensions: environmental risks are being deprioritised in the short term even though they remain dominant in the long term. The report notes that most environmental risks decline in the two-year ranking and also show reduced short-term severity scores compared with the previous year. Yet over 10 years, environmental risks remain the most severe category.
The report’s interpretation is that immediate geopolitical, economic and societal pressures are crowding out longer-term collective priorities. In practical terms, climate and biodiversity risks remain existential, but political attention is being pulled towards wars, protectionism, inflation, debt, social unrest and technological disruption.
This is one of the report’s most important implications: the world may be paying less attention to the risks that experts still see as most severe over the coming decade.
4. What role do technology, AI and quantum developments play in the report’s risk assessment?
Technology is presented as a source of enormous opportunity and systemic risk. In the short term, the report is most concerned with misinformation and disinformation, cyber insecurity and the way digital technologies amplify social polarisation. Misinformation and disinformation ranks second in the two-year outlook, while cyber insecurity ranks sixth.
AI becomes much more important over the long term. “Adverse outcomes of AI technologies” rises from #30 in the two-year outlook to #5 in the 10-year outlook — the largest upward shift across all 33 risks surveyed. The report highlights several possible consequences: labour-market disruption, higher inequality, loss of purpose and social belonging, information chaos, concentration of economic power, and risks from military uses of AI.
The report’s AI chapter is especially concerned with a scenario it describes as “jobless productivity”: productivity rises because of AI, but employment opportunities shrink or become more unevenly distributed. This could deepen inequality and social polarisation, particularly if middle-class and white-collar work is disrupted faster than societies can adapt.
Quantum technologies are treated as a more distant but potentially severe frontier risk. The report highlights the possibility that quantum computing could undermine current cryptographic systems, threatening digital authentication, data privacy and trust infrastructure. It also warns that quantum leadership could become another domain of strategic rivalry, widening economic and geopolitical divides.
5. What does the report imply about cooperation, governance and resilience?
The report’s underlying message is that cooperation is becoming harder at precisely the moment when it is most needed. Multilateralism is described as under pressure from declining trust, protectionism, weakening rule of law and the rise of more adversarial national strategies.
The report does not argue that cooperation has disappeared. Rather, it suggests that cooperation will need to look different. In a more fragmented world, global treaties may be harder to achieve, so the report points to coalitions of the willing, minilateral agreements, public-private partnerships, multi-stakeholder engagement, public awareness, education, R&D and corporate resilience strategies as practical mechanisms for risk reduction.
The report’s perspective is pragmatic rather than optimistic. It assumes that the current order is weakening, but not that collapse is inevitable. Its conclusion is that resilience will depend on rebuilding trust, protecting institutional capacity, investing in adaptive infrastructure, preparing societies for technological disruption, and finding new forms of cooperation even amid competition.
The most important strategic implication is that risk management can no longer be treated as domain-specific. Geopolitics affects economics; economics affects social trust; social distrust affects governance; technology affects all of them; and environmental risks continue to intensify in the background. The report’s core warning is that leaders must prepare for compounding risks, not isolated crises.




